I don’t have much on my mind today. I spent this morning and this afternoon at work, and then when I got home I cleaned the three bathrooms in the house in meticulous fashion. This is the first time its been done for months, so it was no easy task, I’ll assure you.
Today’s blog is more of a reflection of a conversation that I had with a friend the other night. He was looking into betting for the first time, and had come across a number of schemes where you sign up to win free bets at a website, then bet the opposite to happen on another website, thus neutralising any profit but winning yourself a free £25 bet or whatever. Nice, sure, but you need capital, lots of betting accounts and patience as well.
My two betting avenues of choice have always been Roulette and Football accumulators.
Roulette I’m so-so at. It’s a game of probability and I spend most my time covering as many numbers as possible (often only leaving 2 or 3 uncovered) so that I have 33 or 34 numbers of the 36 covered. You win hardly anything, maybe 50p each spin, but at the same time you’re very unlikely to lose (although it is soul destroying when it happens! and takes a long while to reaccumulate everything).
Football accumulators on the other hand, are something which I’ve been doing for a few years, and I usually make a fair bit of money. There was a point last year when I had a 25-bet accumulator, with ridiculous odds, and my 20p bet would have returned somewhere in the region of £5,000. 23 teams won and two of them drew (Roma at home to Ascoli, and York City at home to Forest Green). Unlucky, I know, but my smaller accumulators are always coming off!
Football betting is pretty easy if you have a bit of knowledge and you do a bit of research (previous meetings and league standings). Betting on Man Utd to beat Derby is almost pointless, I mean it’s almost certainly going to happen but betting a fiver on it might only return six quid, if you’re lucky. Is it worth risking so much just for a 20% profit or less? Probably not.
However, couple Man United with say, Chelsea, Inter Milan, Barcelona and Real Madrid to win (and more often than not they all win each weekend) and betting five quid on that could return anywhere between £10 and £20 (I’d reckon around £15). So you more than double your money.
Accumulators on favourites is easy money. Of course, favourites don’t always win (see Liverpool this weekend drawing away to Birmingham, or Arsenal’s numerous draws at home in the past few months). You need to be good at picking out the dead certs, but if you can, and believe me there are much more than five or six every weekend (there’s five or six every day in fact) then you can make a pretty penny doing this.
The other night for example, I bet £5 on Flamengo, Sao Paulo and Nacional all of Brazil to win at their home grounds. They were all favourites, and they all won comfortably, earning me £10.50. The same night, I had also bet £5 on Thisted, OB Odense and Hajduk Split to win their home games, a bet which won me just short of £10 as well. So that’s £20 made in a night without even leaving my house.
Sure, £20 is nothing, but like I said if you pick out these bets on a daily basis you can make money like that every day. Do the math, say you place an accumulator-a-day with the chance to earn either £10 or £20 then if five of them come off a week (they won’t all win, they never do) then you’re anywhere between £50 to £100 up each week. And who couldn’t do with £50 to £100 tax-free every week? I must confess I don’t quite make this much, because I bet much smaller amounts, but winning 5 accumulators a week is a regular occurance to be honest.
Football happens across the world on a daily basis. Most people associate it with Saturdays and Sundays and those are the days that your accumulators really do come in to play. I do much bigger accumulators on a weekend, but they rarely come off. However, during the week, you’ll often have European or Continental fixtures on a Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, Scandinavian leagues often play on Mondays, lower league games are often scattered throughout the week, and random foreign leagues crop up every day. Every single day you can be presented with as many as fifty to a hundred bets, or as little as five. But there’s always options.
Then comes picking out your favourites. The odds are always an indicator of who is going to be walking away victorious, and the more shrewd the odd (1/4 for example) the better they are for your accumulator. As I look at tomorrow’s games (Monday 28th of April) I see that an Arsenal away win is 1/4, and in all fairness, is more than likely going to happen. If I couple this with a Djurgarden home win (3/10 - something I fancy because the away team are at 9/1) and a AaB Aalborg home win (1/2 for one of Denmark’s best teams) I will win £2.43 for every £1 that I put on, well over double my money. If I throw in IFK Gothenburg, one of Sweden’s better teams, to win at home (2/5) and also West Brom (8/15), title chasing in the Championship, to win against lowly Southampton, fighting for their lives, then I will no win £5.23 for every £1 that I bet. I don’t need to tell you that if I bet £5 on this one I’m walking away with £26.
AAB AALBORG v AC Horsens
GOTHENBURG v Sundsvall
DJURGARDEN v Ljungskile
WEST BROM v Southampton
Derby v ARSENAL
On paper I fancy that bet, but at the same time I’m always wary about including too many teams. One game out of five will almost certainly go against the run of play.
A quick look at the league standings, coupled with the odds, should tell you that they’re all relatively safe bets. Although I wouldn’t throw a fiver at it everytime the return looks good. Remember, you’re trying to pick out DEAD CERTS rather than likely games, but I still don’t think that’s a bad accumulator at all.
South American games often run throughout the week, and most weeks if Boca Juniors or River Plate are at home then put your money on them. Same can be said for the top teams in Brazil (just look at the league table). Away wins in South American are MUCH, MUCH rarer than we’re accustomed to in Europe. Seriously, you’re talking maybe one or two in ten games ends in an away win. The continents are much bigger so traveling is a factor, as are the different environments… we don’t need to get into it. Basically, if a top South American team is at HOME then they’re relatively safe (Boca, River Plate, Flamengo, Corinthians, Santos, Sao Paulo, etc.).
Ajax, Feyenoord and PSV are good bets in Dutch football. Bayern Munich will win most of the team, especially at home, in German football. Dynamo Kiev & Shakthar Donetsk rarely lose in the Ukraine. Porto, Sporting Lisbon and Benfica usually win home or away in Portugal. Fenerbache & Galatasary are the same in Turkey, as are Panathinaikos & Olympiakos in Greece. Rosenborg are a ridiculously safe bet in Norway, as are FC Copenhagen in Denmark to name just a few. Like I say, a quick look at the league tables will show you the teams that win 30 out of 38 games a season, and those are the teams that win home and away. So pick out the best three or four and you can often win £2 or £3, maybe more, for every single £1 you bet. Relatively easy money.
You can make killings at the start of the season especially on UEFA Cup day, where Tottenham will get drawn against some random Bulgarian team without a hope in hells chance, on the same night that Lazio host a team from the Faroe Islands. Find a few of these and you can make yourself a shit load of money. The same can be said for the FA Cup and any domestic cup competition across the globe. If giants get drawn against minnows you’ve found some pretty easy dead certs.
However, there are a few things to bare in mind;
1. Don’t bet on a team after they’ve played in Europe because more often than not they’ll stumble regardless of whether they’re at home or not. The other team might have had twice the amount of time to prepare, they have had more rest and generally these are when the upsets occur.
2. Don’t bet on ridiculously low divisions (for example, League Two or the conference in England because these are leagues where anybody can beat anybody for a number of reasons)
3. Top of the league v Bottom of the league often has an unpredictable outcome. You don’t need me to explain why, but you’ll often see teams in the relegation places pull off victories against teams top of the table who get complacent.
4. Don’t think that just because FC Copenhagen are top in Denmark that it’ll be a walk in the park against teams at the foot of the table. FC Copenhagen, realistically, are nowhere near the standard of the British Premiership or the other top continental leagues. When they have a bad day they don’t have the quality in the team to reverse the problem, so betting on lower quality leagues can often lead to bizarre results too.
5. Never EVER bet on derby games. I don’t care if Everton are bottom of the league and Liverpool are top, unbeaten all season, the form book goes out of the window and all the players up their game. Derby games are always too close to call, regardless of what standard and what competition. Just don’t do it.
With that being said, teams are made favourites for a reason. You just need to pick the right favourites for your accumulators and you can triple your money, and then some. It’s a piece of piss really. Just look at today… Roma won at home, so did Inter Milan and Juventus, AC Milan won away, Real Madrid are winning as I type this, Bayern Munich won at home, FC Porto won emphatically, River Plate won 4-2 at home… and they were all games that I would have called to be honest. 8 easy favourites there. Hell, a fiver on that probably would have returned somewhere in the region of £50-60.
There isn’t long left of the footballing season, but still, if you know a bit about football then why not make a bit of money from it?



































Entries (RSS)